Surprise Contenders Archives

The dust has barely settled on the whirlwind that was the 2024 Oscars, where Oppenheimer’s seismic wave dominated the ceremony. Yet, in the relentless calendar of Hollywood, the campaign for the 97th Academy Awards is already underway. The festivals of Cannes, Venice, and Telluride have offered their first glimpses, trade papers are buzzing with whispers, and the industry’s prognosticators are sharpening their pencils. Predicting the Oscars in September is like forecasting a hurricane while it’s still a tropical depression—the broad contours are visible, but its ultimate path and power remain wonderfully, maddeningly uncertain. This early stage is not about declaring winners; it’s about mapping the terrain. It’s about identifying which films have the critical momentum, narrative heft, and sheer cinematic bravado to survive the grueling six-month marathon that is awards season. This article, drawing on decades of combined experience in film analysis and awards tracking, will serve as your definitive guide to the nascent 2025 Oscar race. We will separate the hype from the genuine contenders, spotlight the surprising dark horses, and analyze the underlying trends that will define the conversation all the way to the Dolby Theatre on March 2, 2025. Part I: The Frontrunners – Films with the Wind at Their Backs These are the films that have, through a combination of festival acclaim, powerhouse talent, and compelling subject matter, established themselves as the ones to beat. They possess the early markers of Oscar success: prestige, polish, and palpable buzz. 1. Conclave: The Prestige Play The Pitch: From acclaimed director Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front) and starring an A-list cast led by Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci, and John Lithgow, Conclave is a gripping thriller set within the secretive election of a new Pope. Based on Robert Harris’s bestselling novel, it promises a masterclass in acting, tense, dialogue-driven drama, and sumptuous production design. The Buzz: Premiering at the Telluride Film Festival, Conclave was met with a standing ovation and immediate praise. Critics are calling it "a sleek, intelligent potboiler" and "the kind of sophisticated adult drama Hollywood claims it doesn’t make anymore." Berger’s recent Oscar success (winning four for All Quiet) gives him immediate credibility with the Academy. Oscar Categories: Locked: Best Picture, Best Director (Edward Berger), Best Adapted Screenplay. Strong Contender: Best Actor (Ralph Fiennes), Best Supporting Actor (Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow). Technical Plays: Best Production Design, Best Cinematography, Best Original Score. 2. The Brutalist: The Auteur Epic The Pitch: Directed by Brady Corbet (The Childhood of a Leader, Vox Lux) and starring Adrien Brody, Felicity Jones, and Guy Pearce, The Brutalist is a sprawling, 30-year saga following an architect (Brody) and his wife (Jones) who emigrate from post-war Europe to America. The film traces their lives and the construction of their legacy, quite literally, in brick and mortar. The Buzz: This film made a huge impact at Venice, with many declaring it Corbet's magnum opus. At over three hours, it’s an ambitious, uncompromising vision that tackles themes of art, legacy, immigration, and the American Dream. Brody’s performance is being hailed as a career-best, a powerful, largely silent, and physically transformative tour-de-force. Oscar Categories: Locked: Best Picture, Best Actor (Adrien Brody). Strong Contender: Best Director (Brady Corbet), Best Original Screenplay, Best Supporting Actress (Felicity Jones). Technical Plays: Best Film Editing, Best Cinematography, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design. 3. Emilia Pérez: The Audacious Wildcard The Pitch: In what is perhaps the most unexpected entry into the race, Jacques Audiard’s (A Prophet) Spanish-language crime musical stars Zoe Saldaña, Selena Gomez, and Karla Sofía Gascón. It tells the story of a powerful Mexican cartel leader who undergoes gender-affirming surgery and must navigate a new life and identity. The Buzz: Emilia Pérez was the talk of Cannes, winning the Jury Prize and the Best Actress award for its entire female ensemble. It’s a film that defies easy categorization—a genre-bending, bold, and surprisingly heartfelt musical. Its originality and sheer audacity make it a potent contender in a category that often rewards uniqueness (Everything Everywhere All At Once, Parasite). Oscar Categories: Strong Contender: Best Picture, Best Actress (Karla Sofía Gascón), Best Original Screenplay. Potential: Best Supporting Actress (Zoe Saldaña, Selena Gomez), Best Director (Jacques Audiard). Technical Plays: Best Sound, Best Makeup & Hairstyling. 4. Anora: The Critical Darling The Pitch: From indie provocateur Sean Baker (The Florida Project, Red Rocket), Anora follows a young, charismatic sex worker from Brooklyn (newcomer Mikey Madison) who embarks on a whirlwind relationship with the son of a Russian oligarch. The Buzz: Anora won the Palme d’Or at Cannes, the festival's top prize, instantly catapulting it into the Oscar conversation. Baker is renowned for his gritty, humane, and vibrant portraits of marginalized Americans. The film is said to be both hilarious and heartbreaking, with a star-making performance from Mikey Madison. The Academy has been warming up to Baker, and this could be his breakthrough. Oscar Categories: Strong Contender: Best Picture, Best Director (Sean Baker), Best Actress (Mikey Madison), Best Original Screenplay. Potential: A nomination is the win here, but its raw energy could see it go far. Part II: The Major Contenders – Proven Powerhouses Awaiting Launch These films have all the ingredients on paper—renowned directors, stacked casts, and weighty themes—but have yet to be unveiled to the public. Their potential is immense, but their trajectory remains a question mark. 1. Joker: Folie à Deux: The High-Risk, High-Reward Sequel The Pitch: Todd Phillips returns with this sequel to the billion-dollar, 11-time Oscar-nominated Joker. But this is no conventional follow-up; it’s a musical, starring Joaquin Phoenix returning as Arthur Fleck and Lady Gaga as Harley Quinn. The Analysis: The first film was a cultural phenomenon and won Phoenix his first Oscar. The involvement of Lady Gaga, an Oscar-nominated actress and winner for Best Original Song, adds immense star power. However, the musical genre is a huge gamble. Will the Academy embrace such a radical tonal shift, or will it be seen as a step too far? Its upcoming premiere at Venice will be the most scrutinized event of the season. Potential Categories: Best Picture, Best Actor (Joaquin Phoenix), Best Actress (Lady Gaga), Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Costume Design, Best Original Song (obviously). 2. Blitz: The Steve McQueen Factor The Pitch: Academy Award-winning director Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave) returns with a World War II drama set during the London Blitz. The film features an ensemble cast including Saoirse Ronan, Harris Dickinson, and Kathy Burke. The Analysis: McQueen is an Academy favorite, and the historical drama is a classic Oscar genre. The subject matter—resilience and community during wartime—is potent and timeless. With McQueen’s impeccable craftsmanship and a star like Saoirse Ronan (a perennial Oscar nominee), this film has a very high floor. Its success will hinge on its execution and emotional impact. 3. A Complete Unknown: The Biopic with a Beat The Pitch: Timothée Chalamet steps into the shoes of a young Bob Dylan in this biopic from director James Mangold (Ford v Ferrari, Logan). The film focuses on Dylan’s controversial "going electric" period at the 1965 Newport Folk Festival. The Analysis: The Academy loves a transformative biopic performance, and Chalamet is one of his generation's most celebrated actors. He does his own singing in the film, a high-wire act that, if pulled off, could be undeniable. Mangold is a reliable and respected director. This film has all the makings of a major player, provided Chalamet’s portrayal resonates. Part III: The Surprise Contenders & Dark Horses These are the films that may not have the obvious pedigree of the frontrunners but possess a unique quality, a standout performance, or a narrative that could capture the Academy's heart. 1. The Apprentice: The Political Firestorm The Pitch: A film depicting the early career of Donald Trump, directed by Ali Abbasi and starring Sebastian Stan as a young Trump and Jeremy Strong as his ruthless mentor, Roy Cohn. The Buzz: This film premiered at Cannes to explosive reactions. Stan’s performance is universally praised for being more than mere imitation, capturing the essence of the man. However, the film’s subject matter is politically volatile. While it could be too controversial for the more conservative Academy voters, its sheer audacity and quality of filmmaking make it impossible to ignore. It’s a high-wire act that could either soar or crash spectacularly. Potential Categories: Best Actor (Sebastian Stan), Best Supporting Actor (Jeremy Strong). 2. Megalopolis: The Director’s Comeback The Pitch: Francis Ford Coppola’s self-funded, $120-million passion project, decades in the making. It’s a Roman epic set in a fictional modern America, featuring a massive ensemble cast including Adam Driver, Nathalie Emmanuel, and Forest Whitaker. The Buzz: The film premiered at Cannes to… wildly divisive reviews. Some called it a visionary masterpiece, others a self-indulgent folly. There is no middle ground. For the Academy, this presents a challenge. However, the narrative of the legendary director of The Godfather returning with his life’s work is powerful. If it can build a "passion base" of supporters, it could sneak into categories like Best Picture on the strength of its ambition alone. It’s the ultimate wildcard. 3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig: The International Spotlight The Pitch: Iranian director Mohammad Rasoulof’s clandestinely made drama about a judge in the Revolutionary Court whose family begins to unravel amid political unrest. Rasoulof smuggled the film out of Iran after being imprisoned and has since fled the country. The Buzz: Winner of the Special Jury Prize at Cannes, this film comes with one of the most powerful real-world narratives in recent memory. It’s not just a film; it’s an act of courage. The Academy’s International Feature Film branch is increasingly politically engaged (as seen with films like Flee and Navalny). This could easily follow in the footsteps of All Quiet on the Western Front and become a major multi-category player, especially in International Feature Film and potentially Best Picture. Read more: D4vd’s Hollywood Hills home owner gives chilling details after LAPD raid; ‘It’s very disturbing’ Part IV: Thematic Trends & The Oscar Voter’s Mindset Understanding what films are in the race is only half the battle. Understanding why they might resonate is crucial. The Return of the "Adult Drama": After years of franchise dominance, the success of films like Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon has reaffirmed the market for serious, star-driven, director-led films for adults. Conclave and The Brutalist fit this mold perfectly. The Power of Audacity: The success of Everything Everywhere All At Once broke the mold. Voters are now more open to genre-bending, formally daring films. Emilia Pérez and Joker: Folie à Deux are testing this new boundary. The Internationalization of the Academy: With a growing and diverse international membership, non-English language films are no longer confined to their own category. The success of Parasite and All Quiet has paved the way for films like Emilia Pérez and The Seed of the Sacred Fig to compete at the highest level. The Narrative Matters: The story around the film is often as important as the film itself. The courageous backstory of The Seed of the Sacred Fig, the decades-long passion project of Megalopolis, and the career-comeback arc for Adrien Brody in The Brutalist are all powerful narratives that can sway voters. https://www.youtube.com/watch?vJGrNXA-XX1M Conclusion: The Marathon Begins As we stand in early fall, the 2025 Oscar race is shaping up to be one of the most exciting and unpredictable in years. We have the steady hand of prestige dramas like Conclave, the audacious energy of Emilia Pérez, the epic scale of The Brutalist, and the wildcard potential of Joker and Megalopolis. The coming months will be decisive. The fall festivals (NYFF, AFI) will offer new contenders, the guild screenings (PGA, DGA, SAG) will solidify frontrunners, and the relentless campaign trail will test the stamina of every film. Momentum will shift, frontrunners will stumble, and dark horses will emerge from the pack. One thing is certain: the journey to the Dolby Theatre on March 2nd will be a dramatic, surprising, and deeply compelling story in its own right. Strap in; the race has only just begun. Read more: Kardashian-Jenner Family Distances Themselves from Sean Diddy Amidst Scandal Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) Q1: When will we have a clearer picture of who the true frontrunners are?A: The picture becomes significantly clearer after the "precursor" awards are announced in late December and January. Key indicators are the Critics' Choice Awards, Golden Globes, and, most importantly, the guild awards (Screen Actors Guild, Producers Guild, Directors Guild). These are voted on by industry professionals who often overlap with the Academy and are the best predictors of Oscar success. Q2: Why is festival buzz so important, especially from Cannes, Venice, and Telluride?A: These festivals serve as the official launchpad for awards season. They provide the first wave of critical acclaim, generate essential media coverage, and create the initial "narrative" around a film. A top prize like the Palme d’Or (Cannes) or a standing ovation at Telluride can give a film the momentum it needs to stand out in a crowded field. Q3: What is a "dark horse" contender?A: A dark horse is a film or performance that is not initially considered a major frontrunner but gains significant momentum later in the race, often through strong word-of-mouth, passionate supporter bases, or a successful campaign. They can often surprise on nomination morning. Q4: How much does a film's box office performance influence its Oscar chances?A: It's a double-edged sword. For smaller, independent films, strong box office can demonstrate cultural relevance and broaden their appeal to voters. For larger films, massive success (like Oppenheimer or Top Gun: Maverick) can make them undeniable. However, a prestigious film that underperforms commercially is not automatically disqualified; artistic merit is still the primary driver. Q5: Are there any animation or documentary films that could break into the Best Picture race?A: While it's rare, it's not impossible. Up and Toy Story 3 were both nominated for Best Picture. This year, the buzz around Pixar's Inside Out 2 and its massive critical and commercial success has led to some speculation, but a nomination remains a long shot. In the documentary space, it's even rarer, though a film with a seismic cultural impact like Summer of Soul can sometimes enter the conversation. Q6: What is the biggest potential shake-up in this race?A: The biggest variable is the audience and critical reaction to Joker: Folie à Deux. If it is embraced as a bold, visionary success, it becomes an instant frontrunner across multiple categories. If it is rejected as a misguided folly, it could create a massive power vacuum, particularly in the acting and Best Picture races, allowing other contenders to rise.

Tag: Surprise Contenders

The 2025 Oscar Race Heats Up: Early Frontrunners and Surprise Contenders