The race to the 2024 World Test Championship (WTC) final has become a thrilling contest, with teams vying to secure their spots. The victory of the Indian team in their recent Test series against Bangladesh has solidified their position in the points table. However, India’s path to the finals is not yet guaranteed, and the coming matches will determine the fate of several other teams as well. As 26 Test matches remain in this WTC cycle, let’s break down where the top teams stand, what they need to do to qualify, and how the scenarios are shaping up.
India: Strong Position, But Challenges Ahead
Current Percentage Points: 74.24%
Remaining Series: 3 Tests vs New Zealand (Home), 5 Tests vs Australia (Away)
India’s win over Bangladesh has propelled them to the top of the WTC points table. With 74.24 percentage points, Rohit Sharma and his team are in a comfortable spot, but they still need to deliver in the remaining matches to avoid relying on the results of other teams.
If India wins all their remaining matches against New Zealand and Australia, they will secure 85.09 percentage points, virtually guaranteeing their place in the final. However, realistically, India needs to win at least four of these matches and draw two to maintain their spot in the top two. This would give them 67.54 percentage points, which should be enough to secure a place, depending on how other teams perform.
India’s key challenge lies in their away series against Australia, where conditions could be tricky. The outcome of the series against New Zealand at home is critical, as winning all three matches will give them a strong advantage going into the series Down Under.
Australia: A Solid Contender
Current Percentage Points: 62.50%
Remaining Series: 5 Tests vs India (Home), 2 Tests vs Sri Lanka (Home)
Australia currently sits second in the table with 62.50 percentage points. Their upcoming five-Test series against India is crucial. If Australia wins all five matches, they will reach 76.32 percentage points, ensuring a spot in the final. However, this is a tall order, especially considering India’s strength, even on Australian soil.
Assuming Australia wins four matches, draws two, and loses one (most likely to India), they will end up with 65.79 percentage points. This could still place them in contention, but it depends on the performances of South Africa and Sri Lanka. Australia’s fate will be clearer once the series against India begins.
Their final two-Test series against Sri Lanka will also be critical, as Sri Lanka is also in contention for the WTC final.
Sri Lanka: The Dark Horse
Current Percentage Points: 55.56%
Remaining Series: 2 Tests vs South Africa (Away), 2 Tests vs Australia (Home)
Sri Lanka is still in the race, and their upcoming series against South Africa and Australia could decide their fate. If Sri Lanka wins all four of their remaining matches, they will reach 69.23 percentage points, which should secure them a place in the final. In this scenario, they wouldn’t need to depend on the outcomes of other teams.
However, if they lose one match and win three, Sri Lanka will have 61.54 percentage points, which would still give them a chance, but their fate could then depend on how Australia, India, and South Africa perform.
The series against South Africa is particularly crucial, as both teams are competing for the same spot in the final. If Sri Lanka wins these matches, they will not only boost their chances but also dent South Africa’s hopes of reaching the final.
South Africa: A Fight for Survival
Current Percentage Points: 38.89%
Remaining Series: 2 Tests vs Sri Lanka (Home), 2 Tests vs Pakistan (Home), 2 Tests vs Bangladesh (Away)
South Africa’s current standing is not ideal, but they still have a chance to make it to the final. If South Africa wins all of their remaining six Tests, they will reach 69.44 percentage points, enough to secure a place in the final.
If they win five matches and draw one, South Africa will end up with 63.89 percentage points, which might still keep them in the race, depending on other results. However, if they lose even one match, their percentage will drop to 61.11%, making their chances slimmer, and they will have to rely on the outcomes of other teams.
The most critical series for South Africa is against Sri Lanka. Winning this series will not only improve their position but also hinder Sri Lanka’s chances, making it a direct battle for a spot in the final.
England: Slim Chances
Current Percentage Points: 42.19%
Remaining Series: 3 Tests vs Pakistan (Away), 3 Tests vs New Zealand (Away)
England’s chances of reaching the WTC final are slim. Even if they win all six of their remaining matches, they will only reach 57.95 percentage points, which may not be enough to secure a top-two finish.
Given their recent defeat to Sri Lanka, it is unlikely that England will be able to turn things around in such a dramatic fashion. While mathematically still in the race, England will need a miracle and favorable results from other teams to have any chance of making it to the final.
New Zealand: An Uphill Battle
Current Percentage Points: 37.50%
Remaining Series: 3 Tests vs India (Away), 3 Tests vs England (Home)
New Zealand is in a tough spot. To have any hope of reaching the final, they must win all six of their remaining matches, which would give them 64.29 percentage points. However, their next three Tests are against India in India, where they face an uphill battle.
Even if New Zealand wins four of their remaining matches and loses two, they will still only have 50% points, which will not be enough to secure a top-two finish. Their chances of making the final are slim, but they can still affect the standings by playing a spoiler role in their series against India and England.
Bangladesh and West Indies: Out of the Race
Bangladesh Percentage Points: 34.38%
West Indies Percentage Points: 18.52%
Both Bangladesh and West Indies are out of contention for the WTC final. Even if Bangladesh wins all four of their remaining matches, they will only reach 56.25 percentage points, which will not be enough for a top-two finish. Similarly, West Indies, with just 18.52 percentage points, are mathematically out of the race.
